By Linda Blackford | Editor
It will surprise exactly no one that a group of state economists are concerned about the headwinds ahead, from the war in Iran to a possible AI bubble. The Consensus Forecasting Group put an official “pessimistic” on their forecast. The only person who seemed happy on Tuesday was Gov. Andy Beshear, who touted higher than projected revenues in 2027 (before they get much worse in 2028). See what you think.
Part of Kentucky’s uncertainties are what happens next year when lots of provisions from Trump’s big bill go into effect. That’s why some Medicaid enrollees from Kentucky have joined a national lawsuit to stop the new work requirements, which experts believe will kick thousands off the health insurance program.
In Commentary, Ken Miller returns to a topic he wrote about two years ago: income tax cuts will not create more revenue, despite what Art Laffer says.
It’s a big numbers day at the Lantern, and we’re glad you’re here with us.
By Liam Niemeyer
A group of economists in charge of forecasting how much revenue Kentucky will bring in the next two fiscal years predicted a more pessimistic financial outlook in the coming years, citing a number of uncertainties in the economy.
Medicaid enrollees from five states and leading medical organizations filed a lawsuit Friday challenging new Medicaid work requirements. (Photo by Whitney Downard/Indiana Capital Chronicle)
By Nada Hassanein
Medicaid enrollees from five states and leading medical organizations filed a lawsuit Friday challenging new Medicaid work requirements.
Kentucky has missed another trigger point in further lowering the state income tax. (Kentucky Lantern photo by Sarah Ladd)
COMMENTARY
By Ken Miller
Nearly two years ago, I wrote in this publication that the Kentucky General Assembly’s faith in income tax rate cuts as a vehicle for generating revenue was a mirage. At the time, the state was preparing to cut the individual income-tax rate from 4% to 3.5% even as revenue was expected to decline. I argued that Kentucky was making a dangerous bet that reducing one of the state’s most productive and reliable sources of revenue would somehow generate enough economic growth to replace what the tax cut surrendered.
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